tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-39498453187076958912024-03-06T02:19:12.375-06:00MARC FABER BLOGmath wizhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05774745460438694190noreply@blogger.comBlogger803125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-38267946040188760882023-10-15T07:56:00.002-05:002023-10-15T07:56:11.661-05:00Monthly market commentary October 2023<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Last month, we discussed among others how important the BRICS meeting in South Africa had been. More recently, I was reflecting about the importance of the BRICS meeting in contrast to the just completed UN General Assembly meeting in New York City, where when the Green/Communist German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addressed the assembly, hardly anyone turned up. Even Bloomberg, which tends to be pro-Elites and pro-WEF, carried for an article the headline: World Disappointed by the UN Now Looks Elsewhere for Answers. Indeed, many countries are starting to look elsewhere to do something about them. According to Bloomberg, “The UN, once the central forum for trying to solve geopolitical disputes, is increasingly on the sidelines of the new global politics, unable to keep up with the array of shocks, crises and coups that seem to be fracturing the world.”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I believe that whereas a long time ago, the UN, which is mostly a western dominated organization, was in a position to solve geopolitical problems because of its economic and military supremacy, currently it has lost its influence because of the economic and political rise of the emerging world.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This is particularly visible in Africa, where one domino is falling after another. Pepe Escobar recently noted, that, “Like dominos, African states are one by one falling outside the shackles of neocolonialism. Chad, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and now Gabon, are saying 'non' to France's longtime domination of African financial, political, economic, and security affairs.”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Concerning Niger, Escobar notes that, “The case of Niger is even more complex. France exploits uranium and high-purity petrol as well as other types of mineral wealth. And the Americans are on site, operating three bases in Niger with up to 4,000 military personnel. The key strategic node in their ‘Empire of Bases’ is the drone facility in Agadez, known as Niger Air Base 201, the second-largest in Africa after Djibouti.” [The American Drone base at Agadez has an excellent strategic location being just south of Libya.]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The complexity of fully decolonizing African countries is evident but we also need to briefly address the question about investment opportunities in resource-rich African countries. While I do not see any urgency to purchase African resource stocks, we find in Africa not only depressed stock markets but also that mining stock around the world (including in Africa) have become inexpensive following their lengthy bear markets and recent sell-off.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Having said that, I also need to emphasize that African stock markets just like most markets around the world are nowhere near as depressed as they were in 2009 and 2020. Similarly, gold mining companies are depressed when compared to their highs in 2006/2007 and in 2020 but hardly so when compared to their lows in 2015 and 2019. The reason I am bringing up resource companies in Africa, is that, as I have already discussed last month, Real Assets are likely to begin to outperform Financial Assets. This especially, once growth expectations vanish because of a recession. In this respect, let me add that Bloomberg stated in a column entitled “Growing Recession Fears Weigh on Consumer Confidence” that “Souring confidence across the board paints a bleak picture for spending ahead, indicating dwindling momentum for economic growth.”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The other day, the stock of Oracle broke down by 12% in one day. [It is down 16% in two weeks.] Oracle’s sharp breakdown in just one day is far from unique. More and more stocks (NFLX, AMZN, just to mention two) seem to be breaking down abruptly from strong uptrends, and a large number of stocks seem to have become vulnerable including Apple (AAPL), and are about to break down below important support levels.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">A subtitle in the August monthly report read: Money will likely shift out of FAANG and related Stocks into Financials, Energy, Value and Foreign Stocks. I still maintain this stance, whereby I need to admit that even among some energy, financials, value stocks and emerging markets, there have been some breakdowns, which are disconcerting.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">An important point about Breakdowns to consider is the following: does the breakdown occur after an extended uptrend or does the breakdown occur following a well-established downtrend. If the breakdown appears after an extended uptrend, it may signal a major change in the trend from up to down. If on the other hand the breakdown happens within an already established downtrend it may (but not always) signal an approaching major low or a panic low. Let me provide a concrete example. The long-term US Treasury ETF (TLT) has more recently been gapping down after a lengthy downtrend. [In technical jargon we may be dealing with either a “continuation” or an “exhaustion gap.”]</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Looking at the chart of the long-term Treasury ETF would suggest that we are well along in a downtrend and, given the support that exists around 80, which dates back to 2014, a major low should shortly approach. A major low is also overdue because Treasuries are becoming deeply oversold from both a long-term and short-term perspective. Now, compare this market condition with the charts of Nvidia, Oracle and Apple, and you will see a striking difference in the position of these stocks within the market cycle compared to US Treasuries. Whereas US Treasuries are clearly oversold and far along in a downtrend, NVDA, ORCL, and AAPL (and most FAANG related stocks) may be oversold in the very short-term but certainly not so in the long-term.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Equally, most emerging markets including Hong Kong and China have recently broken down after some lengthy downtrends. Amidst extremely bad investors’ sentiment, both markets are likely to shortly reach major lows.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Equally, I would argue that the recent breakdown in mining stocks could lead to a major low in this sector from which a powerful rebound could occur. At the same time that bonds, precious metals and emerging markets are grossly oversold, the US dollar seems to have become overbought.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But for now, the US stock market looks like a strapless bra; most of investors are wondering what is holding it up while others are waiting for it to drop so they can grab the opportunity with both hands.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><i><span style="font-size: xx-small;">via GloomBoomDoom.com</span></i></span></p>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-3593660671456929442023-04-01T07:28:00.003-05:002023-04-01T07:28:21.087-05:00We Are Destroying Ourselves - Dr Doom<p> </p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/sYnZJWdHRdY" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYnZJWdHRdY" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</i></div>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-31378140944128521102022-02-09T11:49:00.003-06:002022-02-09T11:49:48.685-06:00Central Banks are in no position to adjust interest rates to say 6%<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/IwQMIX8S45Y" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwQMIX8S45Y" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</i><br /><p> </p></div>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-77788517579122526312021-10-25T02:00:00.001-05:002021-10-25T02:00:00.229-05:00The Fed is built to print and they will not stop...<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/gBXFGs9YR8U" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBXFGs9YR8U" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</div>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-54408131797370576812021-05-17T15:04:00.004-05:002021-05-17T15:04:42.381-05:00Money printing has disastrous consequences - Wars, Government acquiring assets, bonds, stocks.<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/DDLQcRTq4GE" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDLQcRTq4GE" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</i></div>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-81426846550990001592020-11-09T02:30:00.000-06:002020-11-09T02:30:04.925-06:00Covid has been used as an excuse by Governments to put people in chains and control them. I don't think history will be kind to governments reaction to Covid-19.<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/jIC8lpv0E7A" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIC8lpv0E7A" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</i></div>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-79742297278348878612020-11-02T03:00:00.001-06:002020-11-02T03:00:06.447-06:00Most people have already sold their Gold because that's their only thing they made money on.<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/dv5ApbF_elA" width="560"></iframe></p><p><i>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dv5ApbF_elA" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</i></p><p><i><br /></i></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Fed and Central Banks</b></span></p><p><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">"I wouldnt hire these academics as a Driver, a Gardner, a cook, they are useless. On that basis I own Gold. They will continue to Print Money. They have to bailout the US government, State Government, Unfunded Liabilities, Pension Funds..."</span></i></p>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-33953797718192489722020-10-26T03:00:00.008-05:002020-10-26T03:00:04.111-05:00Money printing lifts financial assets. This kind of illusion of wealth has bypassed the majority of people who are not participating in this Asset Inflation. In America 50 percent of the people have no money.<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/WoyGH_4qU_g" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoyGH_4qU_g" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</i></div>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-489528247474178502020-09-17T06:16:00.005-05:002020-09-17T06:16:32.967-05:00The problem with rising assets is that it may increase wealth concentration. <iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/BUhPTEdVAU8" width="560"></iframe><div><br /></div><div><i>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUhPTEdVAU8" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</i><br /><br /><div><span style="font-family: verdana;">Rising wealth concentrations could in turn, increases social tensions, and this social instability can cause further hardships for the populace. It's vital for a society to do what is right and not do things like make the stock markets go up.</span></div></div>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-37672962100343999242020-08-24T04:36:00.019-05:002020-08-24T04:36:02.392-05:00We are moving straight into Socialism. Im afraid this will be negative for the US Dollar.<p> <iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/YCHeq8s9fy4" width="560"></iframe></p><p>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCHeq8s9fy4" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Topics discussed include</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">-Some stocks have languished. Investors should look at stocks that are depressed. If you had an index of mom and pop stores, it would look disastrous. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">-Recovery inequities in the US have been concentrated in FAANG stocks. Recovery in US markets not representative of the entire market. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">-Gold and Silver has done better than any equities this year. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">-Commodities were in a bear market for around 20 years. After 2011, commodities did not perform well till around 2015. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">-Agricultural and industrial commodities are very depressed. If Central banks print money, purchasing power will diminish. Between 2009 to now, US stocks have performed very well. Emerging markets including India will begin to outperform US markets. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">-Do not think the outperformance of US markets will continue. Banks that ave under-performed globally look attractive</span></p>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-13601097150522912092020-08-20T04:36:00.006-05:002020-08-20T04:36:36.410-05:00August 2020 Monthly Report<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I have the pleasure to make a small announcement. By now, with the strong performance of Treasury bonds, equities, and especially precious metals, all my readers who even had just a small allocation in gold and silver, have earned far more than the subscription price of this commentary.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Although we gold holders should all be happy about its performance, other assets such as US equities have also done fabulously well and have actually outperformed gold over the long term – this especially if we were to include dividends.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I just read an interview by Kate Welling with Joel Greenblatt, a well-known deep-value investor According to Greenblatt, stocks like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, all stocks which he holds in his portfolio, were inexpensive.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, Greenblatt adds that, “it just seems quite unlikely that we have hundreds of companies that will match the performance of the best of all time. But people are giving them advance credit, in terms of their stock valuations, for being the next Amazon, the next Google. So, we are short hundreds of those companies.”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Maybe we are in a period during which a value stock is a company such as Microsoft, selling for 10-times sales and 31-times estimated earnings but not according to my value criteria. Noteworthy is that whereas the tech sector now accounts for 37% of the S&P market capitalization, aggregate sales for the sector make up for only 10% of the index. In other words, the ownership of FAANG and related stocks seems to be an extremely "crowded" trade.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Actually, I believe asset markets reflect closely what is occurring in the world. Take precious metals markets. They are moving up not necessarily because they expect high consumer price inflation but because investors realize that the purchasing power of paper money is being eroded through the excess creation of money and negative interest rates.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Also, a safe assumption is that central bankers around the world will continue to print money. In other words, the central banks' balance sheets will further expand. How does an investor protect himself from this monetary inflation? He seeks refuge in assets, which cannot be multiplied at the same rate that money can be printed, such as precious metals or crypto-currencies. The investor may also choose to move money into assets whose supply cannot be increased at all such as Rembrandt, Picasso, van Gogh, etc. paintings or old stamps.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I concede that precious metals are near-term overbought, and that the bullish consensus is high. But, at the same time, there is huge pool of potential investors which do not own any precious metals at all and could come into the market – most likely at far higher prices.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">My advice is to hold a basic allocation to precious metals, and if desired take occasionally trading positions. Should confidence in the system erode (I am surprised there is still any confidence left) it would take little money in the context of the entire size of global financial assets and of the liquidity, which central bankers create, to boost precious metal prices much higher.</span></p><p><i>Via Gloomboomdoom</i></p>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-65013726927078186902020-07-10T10:40:00.000-05:002020-07-10T10:40:17.689-05:00Young people in America seem to prefer Socialism. Millenials think the Government should do more.<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/ztC5-I2Zp14" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<i>Click here if the above <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztC5-I2Zp14" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">video</a> does not play</i>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-74004841982152716372020-05-06T05:00:00.000-05:002020-05-06T05:00:08.386-05:00At the present time we have a credit and liquidity crisis. This could cause the price of Gold to also decline.<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Nh_GU5GA47U?start=50" width="560"></iframe>
<br />
<i>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nh_GU5GA47U" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</i>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-56181297562313958212020-04-29T04:00:00.000-05:002020-04-29T04:00:14.951-05:00Marc Faber talks about Investments and the effects COVID-19 pandemic on stocks<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/4eVNwlLom-k" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<i>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eVNwlLom-k" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</i>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-64488533090048335412020-04-25T09:12:00.000-05:002020-04-25T09:12:05.566-05:00Marc Faber talks about the recent market declines in 2020<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/0SWW-dEqj9c" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SWW-dEqj9c" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not playfinance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-50966852863071462602020-03-10T08:49:00.002-05:002020-03-10T08:49:37.929-05:00The Corona Virus could create a Severe Recession<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Last month, I opined that, a severe coronavirus pandemic could tilt the global economy into recession and that therefore, it would be favorable for US Treasuries. Over the last twelve months, the long-term Treasury ETF (TLT) is up 30% and year-to-date 13%. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index is up 6% over the last twelve months, and is down 8% in 2020. US Treasuries remain inexpensive compared to European sovereign bonds and they are a great hedge against a further stock market decline. Near-term, Treasuries are very overbought but I continue to hold them because of my belief that the Coronavirus will tilt the global economy into a serious deflationary recession/depression.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In recent reports I have explained that I was reducing my equity exposure to around 20% of assets and increasing my cash holdings. I want to warn my readers not to be complacent. If the Coronavirus is going to be as bad as I believe it will be, I would not be surprised if all asset prices declined.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Most importantly, I suspect that the Coronavirus could be the event that pricks the monetary-inflationary credit bubble for good, depresses all asset prices, leads to severe economic hardship, and destroys central bankers.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lastly, remember the words of the late Leon Levy: </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">“For most people, the most dangerous self-delusion is that even a falling market will not affect their stocks, which they bought out of a canny understanding of value.”</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i>via gloomboomdoom</i></span>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-49484828111774284072020-03-02T03:00:00.000-06:002020-03-02T03:00:08.637-06:00QE Infinity - Marc Faber interview in 2020<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/CEaFf14qdbc" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<i>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEaFf14qdbc" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</i>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-5654992462833352012020-02-18T10:03:00.001-06:002020-02-18T10:03:49.401-06:00February 2020 Monthly Market commentary<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i>Marc Faber talks about UBI and the uncertainty in the equity market in the February 2020 Monthly Market commentary</i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The other day, I came across an essay that aroused my interest because of its title: Universal Basic Income: A Dream Come True for Despots by Antony Sammeroff (he is the author of Universal Basic Income - For and Against. According to Sammeroff, although there are “heated disagreements between economists on just about every issue under the sun, there is probably one point that they are all actually unanimous on. That is the fact that every policy has winners and losers. Given that human wants are infinite but our means towards attaining those wants are limited, policies, by their nature, advantage some groups at the expense of others.” </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In the case of the Universal Basic Income (UBI) one potential drawback would be that the government debt would increase even more than it is currently expanding. I am well-aware that numerous economists including Narayana Kocherlakota have pointed out that the Federal Debt Is Nothing to Lose Sleep Over - because the government can borrow as much from taxpayers as it wants. Kocherlakota argues that, “Policy makers and voters often express concern about the level of the federal deficit, which topped $1 trillion last year, and the national debt, now more than $23 trillion. But, unlike a household that owes money to a bank, the U.S. government has the ability to tax its creditors. This power means that the federal government can afford any level of debt that is owed to American taxpayers.” </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In theory, Kocherlakota’s views are correct. I am less sure that his views work in practice. Moreover, a rising government debt combined with a UBI program would, as Sammeroff explains, “institutionalise the state as each of our patrons — and us as wards of the state. Once this relationship is established, we will enter into a frightening era where the government is our provider and the UBI can easily be weaponized by our rulers to shape us into compliance.” </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Paul Tudor Jones exclaimed recently that, "We’re just in the craziest monetary-fiscal [policy] mix in history. It’s so explosive, it defies imagination.... It’s crazy times…..The train has got a long, long way to go if you think about it.”</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I am less sure about for how long the train has to go….. I am therefore reducing my equity exposure. </span> <br /><br />
<br />
<br />
<i>via gloomboomdoom</i>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-82282467121050423082019-12-30T04:00:00.000-06:002019-12-30T04:00:03.676-06:00Marc Faber interview with BigEye<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/eq0d5GMhCNg" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eq0d5GMhCNg" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not playfinance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-30268808439759873042019-11-05T06:59:00.000-06:002019-11-05T06:59:01.579-06:00Marc Faber November 2019 interview on the state of markets<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/rMP6WwYEBo8?start=120" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<i>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMP6WwYEBo8" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</i><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Topics discussed in the video include the US </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Fed, Swiss Francs, MMT, US Dollar, Gold and MORE</span>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-57407410661026921152019-10-07T03:30:00.000-05:002019-10-07T03:30:04.189-05:00October 2019 Interview with Jason Hartman<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/TmjBH5PnR1Y?start=46" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
<i>Click <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmjBH5PnR1Y" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> if the above video does not play</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Topics Discussed:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Minute 4:10 Asset inflation and monetary policies is helping the rich get richer at expense of the rest of the population.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Minute </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">10:18 millennials and finance</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Minute</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> 13:33 Investing in a world of declining asset prices</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Minute</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> 15:25 How central banks can create more money</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Minute</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> 19:57 Kicking the can down the road</span>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-25528736228723436522019-09-30T03:30:00.000-05:002019-09-30T03:30:09.692-05:00Gold is still interesting as an asset to own <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="480" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBNn9kXMTku5yW7bQ1mBSv9FjxbcojXqiuyipD1GHQk9-2FzhehQ3P21TX1MGFRzM0IHFjIJ6sG9Jh5GQkK67v5KuMyMGuMR-WEQDFwsXkK1Rd5swXO2tVFsPmbpvzO-lUqSda7-GRv1A/s320/gold15.jpg" width="320" /></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">After a correction, the precious metals are still interesting because if you look at how the pension funds are invested, they own billions of dollars in Apple, in Amazon, in Netflix, in Google and the semi conductor stocks but billions, you ask them how much do you have in gold, most of them have not even 1% in gold. One day the trustees of these pension funds and endowment funds and family offices will ask the fund manager well gold shares are up 100% so far this year. </span><br />
<br />finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-29504926523951165922019-09-25T03:30:00.000-05:002019-09-25T03:30:06.181-05:00Why some investors have been buying negative yielding bonds<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="600" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaQsua5Aekjbn2SVzl1KRFdnH1zch-qxLldsdvJPVHkGoVhSqlPTaJdVFqZJV52GBIC6wyWW0raxhDgEHB_pO1hntVnw_wFGpvflm1HmCYMp1YHiH8JKfRHtb6SEOFNgGIwhhQfMEXOWs/s320/bancos-illuminati-entre-os-fatos-dobre-a-conspiracao-illuminati.jpg" width="320" /></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I understand everybody is looking for the next big investment scene. As I said, you will make more money in emerging economies than in the US in the next few years but I would also like to introduce the thought and this thought is that 1980 to today we have had huge asset inflation; look at Mumbai real estate prices, 1980 and today, you look at Delhi real estate prices, you look at Chennai real estate prices, Bangalore, New York, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, you look at stock prices 1980 to today, you look at bond prices 1980 and today all asset prices had huge moves, huge moves and this asset inflation could come to an end. The question is not which group will do best in future but maybe the question should be how do I lose the least money over the next 10 years? </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A lot of people are wondering why someone would buy a bond with a negative yield, say you buy Swiss Franc bond you pay 105 and in 10 years it will pay you back say a 100. So it has a negative interest rate. Now the reason bonds in Europe trade at negative rates is that insurance companies and pension funds they are forced by government regulation to buy these bonds which is fraught to start with but in addition to that, if you are the salesman and you come to me say here is a bond, it has a negative yield, say 5% over 10 years. So, it is 0.5% per annum negative yield grossly. Then why should I buy it? But if you are a good salesman and say the whole world would likely collapse and stocks will be down 40%. Bonds will go down, a lot of currencies will collapse, the Euro may collapse, but maybe it is not all that bad to only lose 5% over 10 years on your money than to lose 40%! </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">You understand the reasoning and there is a group of people that buy these bonds. If you had come to me and said buy these Austrian bond 100 years at 2.10%, I would not have bought it, but in two years, it has doubled in price. So, it was a great investment. </span><br />
<br /><br />
<i>via economictimes</i>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-38857216581566768002019-09-23T04:00:00.000-05:002019-09-23T04:00:08.670-05:00Investors should not expect high return on stocks<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I have to state that in my view if you are a prudent investor you are not going to make a lot of money in equities over the next three years. Maybe one company will go up 10 times and 900 companies would not. You have to take big risks if you really want to make a lot of money. My return expectations are very low. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In Europe, in 2017, the Austrian government issued a 100-year bond. The coupon was 2.10%. It was issued at a 100, the interest the 2.10% which is not a lot but people buy these bonds and you are not going to make a lot of money out of these bonds. Now you made a lot of money by buying US treasuries over the last six months. The stock market in the US is not higher than it was in January 2018. In other words, 18 months ago we have been trading sideways and that maybe the pattern that we have to look for. So in terms of return expectations, investors have to really lower their long term expectations. </span><br />
<br />
<i>via economictimes</i>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3949845318707695891.post-91379098266226334512019-09-18T03:30:00.000-05:002019-09-18T03:30:07.510-05:00Commodities can be viewed as another form of money<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Most commodities do not have structural bull markets. They move from a situation of oversupply like we have in sugar and then the oversupply leads to inventory liquidation, the reduction of production and then prices go ballistic and as soon as prices go up strongly, new supplies come in. An individual can buy a stock and if the management is good, they will grow the company overtime. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In the case of commodities, there is hardly anything as long term investing although and I do not consider precious metals to be commodities, I consider them more to be money. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If you bought gold in 20 years ago in 2000, you have outperformed Berkshire Hathaway which is essentially controlled by <a href="https://warrenbuffetinvestment.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Warren Buffett</a>. Precious metals are from a longer term perspective relatively attractive but they do not perform as well as a stock market index over the long run. </span><br />
<br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>via economictimes</i>finance bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06602021523547912717noreply@blogger.com