Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Stocks can rally a little bit more

I think, the S&P may make a new high sometime at the end of the month, but it would not be accompanied by the majority of stocks making new highs. Last year, there were about as many stocks down as there were stocks up, and in my view we’ll have a lot of volatility this year. 

Everybody is bullish about the U.S. dollar. The bullish consensus about stocks is still very high. The bullish consensus about U.S. bonds is extremely high and the bearish consensus about the euro is extremely high and about commodities and oil and so forth.

We could have a reversal, a trading rally in oil, a trading rally in euro and setback in U.S. bonds and a little bit of rally in U.S. stocks, but not much.