Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Marc Faber gives his probabilities on various topics, assets

Probability that the U.S. will go into a recession by 2020

Marc Faber: 100% probability. We are in a lengthy expansion already, far above the average expansion in the 20th century. We have a lot of imbalances, in my view a recession is inevitable. But unlike central banks, I do not regard a recession as negative. It's like the human body, an economy also needs a resting period occasionally to adjust. A recession is not something that has to be avoided at all costs.

The European Union will break up by 2020

Marc Faber: 80%. Economically, the EU would probably will break up. But it's also a political issue as there may be lot of political obstacles to complete a split from the EU. Whether they can really split from the EU is not entirely clear.Some countries like Austria or France would like to split from the EU, but if they could do it in practice is not entirely clear to me. 

Gold price will hit 5000 per ounce by 2020

Marc Faber: I think 60% probability but I hate to put in a price. My projection is that it will go up against the loss of the purchasing power of paper money. If someone says to me I dont trust the markets anymore I want to be 100% in cash. I'd tell him which cash and how do you keep your cash. In a bank deposit ? You know there is a risk the bank could go bankrupt. So for someone to be 100% in cash is very risky.

The Chinese currency RMB will depreciate 10% from current level against U.S. dollar before 2017

Marc Faber: 20%. I dont assign a high probability because unlike other people, I'm not that bullish about the U.S. dollar. I don't see anything much great about the U.S. economy. On the contrary, China is still a competitive country even if wages have gone up substantially. I don't see a necessity for China to devalue.

World War III before 2025

Marc Faber: Under Hillary Clinton, 80%. Under Donald Trump the probability of World War III is low... 20%. The neocons led by the Bush family are pro-Hillary, because they know they can manipulate her, they have made a deal with her, in which she does her social agenda in the U.S. while the neocons take over foreign policy. As such, the people in Asia are more likely to become harsher towards China.

In Ukraine, for example, if Hillary's administration starts a conflict there, the Chinese will react because China now has the power. Nowadays, an aircraft carrier is a sitting duck ready to be shot down.

A Mars colony before 2050

A: Even if people can live on Mars, I don't think there will be an economy any time soon. Maybe some people will go on a holiday there, I dont know. The cost of travelling there will be very high.