Monday, April 1, 2019

Bonds and Stocks giving conflicting messages

The S&P500 is up around 20 percent from its December 2018 lows. Are we in a new bull market ? Are we going to see higher highs ? Marc Faber on his April 2019 Market Commentary gives his opinion on Stock market and Bonds.



The Disagreement between Equities and Bonds Over the last twelve months or so, some analysts pointed out the low number of new issues as a sign that the US stock market was far from being overheated. However, I respond to this argument that instead of new public issues, privately held startup companies valued at over $1 billion - Unicorns - have proliferated at a rapid pace.

What is clear is that when privately funded companies finally list their shares on an exchange the insiders (people who funded the companies) perceive the timing and the valuation to be opportune.

The average age of a technology company before it goes public is now 11 years, as opposed to an average life of four years back in 1999. Furthermore, the number of loss-making companies that go public seems to have increased. Ride-hailing company Lyft, just tapped the public market and listed its shares at $72 giving it a market capitalisation of $23 billion. Last year Lyft posted a loss of $911 million, more than any U.S. start-up has ever lost in the 12 months leading to its IPO. The Wall Street Journal (March 25, 2019) noted sarcastically that, "Ride-hailing company Lyft Inc. is leading a parade of Silicon Valley companies to Wall Street that display an unusual quality with parallels to companies going public in the dot-com era: lots of red ink."

Investors are enjoying and discussing the strong first quarter stock returns, but seldom talk about the almost 13% gain of long-term US Treasuries since the November 2018 low. What does the March 22 upside breakout of Treasury bonds indicate? Recession dead ahead or interest cuts by the FED? 

The rally in long-dated Treasuries signals economic weakness. Therefore, stocks should begin to decline as corporate profits would come under meaningful pressure (sales declines and profit margin contraction). So far, this has not happened. Another mystery is the strong performance of junk and emerging market bonds.

In other words, we have US equities and high yield bonds (junk or lower quality bonds) saying that all is great while Treasuries scream "recession ahead." Something does not quite add up and unquestionably some investors or probably all investors will get hurt by adverse market movements.

In this context investors should remember the words of the late Leon Levy who said that, 
“For most people, the most dangerous self-delusion is that even a falling market will not affect their stocks, which they bought out of a canny understanding of value.” 


via gloomboomdoom

Monday, March 18, 2019

Marc Faber buys Bitcoin

After a conversation with @wences (CEO of @xapo), the most well-known Swiss financial market expert Marc Faber has invested in Bitcoin.

According to Dr Faber, “I was tempted to purchase Bitcoin when it was available for $200. But I held myself from purchasing something that I didn’t fully understand.”

One of his reasoning to buy Bitcoin is so he could try to better understand how it worked. Also Marc Faber says Bitcoin prices at $3000 is much more attractive than it was at $20,000.

Monday, March 4, 2019

US political situation is very bad

Marc Faber on disinformation during stock market downturns and on US politics.


Well, I think there is a lot of disinformation, and usually when stocks go down, some fraud comes to the surface. And I expect it to happen, and I mean in a major way. Whether the fraud is related to some corporation, which I think is quite likely, or whether it's related to the fraud that is going on in the pension fund system, where pension funds are grossly underfunded, and, in the future, will either have to increase contributions or reduce distributions. I think these are items that could happen. 

Secondly, the public may start to lose faith in the system because of the political situation. I think the political situation in the U.S. is very bad, and if you read about what has been happening at the FBI, the CIA in Washington, you have to scratch your head whether that is all possible in a system that is supposedly functioning. It's like Watergate, but actually magnified. So, I think there is a possibility that investing public loses interest in financial assets. 

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Physical precious metals far superior to Cryptos as a Safe Haven

Marc Faber on whether Gold and Crypto currencies should be considered a safe haven....



I don't think that cryptos are safe. Now they may move up and they may move down but I, as an investor for the ultimate crisis, I prefer to be in physical precious metals, gold, silver, platinum.

I think, eventually, these precious metals will come back into the investment portfolios of major institutions and individuals. The major institutions of the world, they hold practically no gold. They have more money in Apple, they have more money in Amazon, than, say, in gold. And I think that will change over time, but I don't know whether it will be tomorrow or in three years’ time, but my view would be that if you really look at the financial situation, the unfunded liabilities, the government deficit, the inflated asset prices, the conclusion is central banks will have to continue to print money, otherwise the system collapses. That, in my opinion, will boost precious metals prices.



-Via Money Metals podcast

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Both US and China will lose in a Trade War



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