Monday, September 10, 2018

More fiscal and monetary accommodations are inevitable

The US stock markets are making all time highs with the S&P500 and DOW almost at record highs. There will be a decline at some point in the future, and when that happens, investors should be prepared.

"With respect to asset markets, I think the most important question investors have to consider is how central bankers will react when the global economy weakens and when asset markets decline. Furthermore, how will currencies, capital markets (stocks and bonds) and precious metals, and other asset markets (real estate, collectibles, cryptocurrencies, etc.) react to another round (inevitable in my opinion) of monetary and fiscal accommodations, and other interventions such as tariffs (in short further manipulations of free markets)?"

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Is it better to live in one of the most expensive cities or least expensive ?

Marc Faber in his latest market commentary talks about the various "cost of living" in various parts of the world and gives his take on what is being ignored in these rankings.

"Last month, I explained how challenging it was to make comparisons about the cost of living in different cities around the world and touched on the cost of health care and of education in various countries and specifically in the US. I mentioned at the time that Zurich and Geneva were deemed as the world's most expensive cities."

"While Zurich is the "most expensive" city with the UBS Cost of Living Index at 116.6, the world’s least expensive cities are New Delhi, Manila, Kiev, Lagos, and Cairo (Cost of Living Index respectively at 46.0, 45.2, 44.0, 40.6, and 34.6).

So, where should you live and work? This report fails to provide a definite answer but addresses numerous issues that need to be considered when taking a decision.

Safety is, in my opinion, an important consideration. You need to be careful about your own security everywhere in the world whereby the cost of protecting yourself, your family, and your property is far lower in some countries than in others. [I would rank Japan and Singapore as the world’s safest countries.] Furthermore, sleeping at night without worrying about yourself and your family being violently attacked is probably worth the price of living in one of the world’s more expensive cities."

Thursday, August 30, 2018

Growing trade deficits

On why the US has a trade deficit

“Trump is surrounded by number of economists and they think that American trade deficit [is] relative, relative decline of American labour force is due to import China. The import from China is symptoms of having become less competitive. Capital spending in U.S. has been low for 20-30 years. Economists have always argued to boost consumption in order to stimulate the economy. Obviously, one of the consequences of this is the growing trade deficit.”

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Buying opportunities in Turkish assets

The recent sell off in Turkish stocks may have presented a buying opportunity for Bulls according to  Marc Faber who spoke with Anadolu Agency.

“People always say they would like to buy low and sell high. Turkish stocks are valued in U.S. dollars. Now it’s in buying range. I think I will buy some Turkish stocks, ETF’s. I own some [Turkish] bonds. It’s not the huge portion of my portfolio but yes I own some Turkish debts. I think it’s the time to buy Turkish assets." 

Monday, August 13, 2018

Marc Faber on the possibility of stock market prices adjusting downwards

Marc Faber reflects in his latest Gloomboomdoom post on the possibility of stock market prices adjusting downwards

"If in an economic system prices in one or several sectors increase over an extended period of time far more than the overall price level, a reversion to the mean will sooner or later take place. The adjustment in prices can take place in two different ways. Prices in the inflated sector can stagnate for a while or increase more slowly than the overall price level.

Another possibility which is more likely is that grossly inflated sectors and assets revert to the mean by crashing altogether.

I believe that stock markets around the world are at an important crossroad: Growth (represented by the NASDAQ 100) is out and Value (real estate, REITs, Telecoms, food, consumer staples, financials, and energy (as represented by the Russell 1000 Value ETF – IWD) is beginning to outperform."