Wednesday, October 24, 2018

This correction is not very meaningful yet

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"The financial markets were already very fragile at the beginning of this year and this fragility has actually increased because there is a tendency among central banks to step back from asset purchases, letting interest rates gradually adjust on the upside. And so this liquidity that we have in the world has been diminishing. It is not shrinking, but it is growing at the diminishing rate. 

Then came the announcement of the Trump administration. It is a really bad idea to pick on China and to launch not only a trade war but a confrontation with the US’ largest trading partner who also happens to be a large buyer of US assets, bonds, stocks and of course, properties. This idea has disturbed the financial markets around the world and so they are adjusting on the downside. Now, I would not call that the crash. A crash happened in 1987 when the Dow Jones dropped 21% in just one day. "

Monday, October 15, 2018

Central banks could eventually end up owning all assets

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Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Top world cities positioned for long term success

The cities positioned for long term success does not include any from China or India. Marc Faber talks about current top cities vs future top cities on his latest October 2018 GloomBoomDoom report.

According to Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), the cities which are best positioned for long term success are San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Boston, New York, London, Los Angeles, Paris, Amsterdam, Toronto, etc.

JLL further states that, "In an increasingly digital and global economy, cities must be able to attract high-end talent, foster innovation, and maintain competitiveness – and failing to do so can have dire consequences. 
Which cities are prepared to adapt, and which will get left behind in the dust?"

In order to answer this question JLL produced a City Momentum Index, which tries "to identify the cities that are at the forefront of the innovation economy, by looking at key factors such as the number of tech firms, education, environment, transparency, infrastructure, and international patents." The cities that are at the top of the JLL Momentum Index are: Hyderabad, Bangalore, Ho Chi Minh City, Pune, Kolkata, Hanoi, Nanjing, Delhi, Hangzhou, and Xian.

Out of the 30 cities best positioned for long-term success, 12 are in the US and 3 in Canada, 2 in Australia, and 10 in Europe. Only three cities were located in Asia (Tokyo, Seoul and Singapore, but not one was located in either India or China).  

Of the 30 cities with the highest growth momentum, only 5 cities were outside Asia (Nairobi, Lagos, Dubai, Seattle, and Bucharest).

I have to say, I found it bizarre that no cities in China and India were on the list for long term success.

As Herodotus opined already in the 5th century BC, "The cities that were formerly great, have most of them become insignificant; and such as are at present powerful, were weak in olden times. I shall, therefore, discourse equally of both, convinced that human happiness never continues long in one stay.”