Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Stocks can rally a little bit more

I think, the S&P may make a new high sometime at the end of the month, but it would not be accompanied by the majority of stocks making new highs. Last year, there were about as many stocks down as there were stocks up, and in my view we’ll have a lot of volatility this year. 

Everybody is bullish about the U.S. dollar. The bullish consensus about stocks is still very high. The bullish consensus about U.S. bonds is extremely high and the bearish consensus about the euro is extremely high and about commodities and oil and so forth.

We could have a reversal, a trading rally in oil, a trading rally in euro and setback in U.S. bonds and a little bit of rally in U.S. stocks, but not much.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Marc Faber on US economy and Swiss move [VIDEO]

Marc Faber thinks Gold has now bottomed and he likes Gold.

Watch the interview from Bloomberg above.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Precious metal stocks are good value

We simply have highly inflated asset markets. Real estate is high, stocks are high, bonds are high, art prices are high, and interest rates and short-term deposits are basically zero.

The only sector that I think is very inexpensive is precious metals, and in particularly precious-metals stocks.

Emerging Economies
I don’t think they [emerging mkts] are that cheap. Valuations are not expensive, but they are not the bargain of the century. But I believe some time in the next six to nine months emerging economies will become relatively attractive.”

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Majority of Fund managers underperformed in 2014

I am somewhat surprised that close to 90% of active fund managers under-performed the S&P 500 in 2014 (hedge funds also had a poor year). 

I am saying this because we had within the US stock market widely diverging performances of different sectors, which – at least in theory - would have allowed an active manager to overweight strong sectors while at the same time under-weighting weak sectors. 

Maybe the US stock market was not as strong as the indices suggest. Possibly, fund managers do not have sufficient time for deep reflection or it could be that, as Clare Boothe Luce opined, “What generally passes for ‘thought’ among the majority of mankind is the time one takes out to rearrange one's prejudices.”

Monday, January 19, 2015

Gold can go up big in 2015 if central banks collapse

My belief is that the big surprise this year is that investor confidence in central banks collapses. And when that happens — I can't short central banks, although I'd really like to, and the only way to short them, is to go long gold, silver and platinum. That’s the only way. That’s something I will do

I'm positive gold will go up substantially [in 2015]... say 30 per cent.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Democracy needs to prove to world

Today we have a government in the western world that have more vultures that receive something from the state than people that actually pay for it. And so I think that Democracy is an untested system. We have maybe 7000 years of history of civilizations and democracy is roughly maximum hundred years because in many countries full democracies were only introduced less than a hundred years ago. 

The country that basically invented democracy - Greece, only certain citizens could vote, not everybody.

Historically we have to see the outcome of democracy, I don't believe it will be a good outcome. I have seen in Asia- Japan in the 70's, 80's, South Korea 70's, 80's, Taiwan 70's, 80's, Hong Kong until today; these countries never had democracies and they prospered. I have seen prosperity already in cities like Venice, Florence, Vienna and they didn't have democracy. So I'm not sure democracy is the best system. Its not yet proven. 

Monday, January 12, 2015

Marc Faber surprised at amount of Central Banks power

Janet Yellen is the chief of Federal Reserve
I believe that central banks today have much too much power. Basically central banks are run by bureaucrats, mostly academics. They have studied at nice universities and so forth, they crunch numbers. 

99 percent never worked in the private sector. And to these people you give the largest authority to run the world - monetary policies. That I will never understand. 

Monday, January 5, 2015

Gold could go up even if Stocks decline

I believe that say if the stock market drops more than 20 percent, the Fed would step in. Actually I wouldnt be surprised if the Fed didnt step in after a 10 percent correction. That would be close to 200 S&P points. But on a 400 S&P point decline, for sure the Fed would again implement asset purchases, and I think at that time Gold could really take off, and because junior mining stocks and large ones use their high leveraged play on the price of Gold, I believe yes they could go up if stocks decline.