Monday, September 15, 2014

Evidence of monetary policies failing

I think we are in a late stage rally and we are probably not going to get a correction but a bear market that will be 20 to 30 percent at some point.

Nobody knows for sure [when the stock market decline will start] but I suppose the credit market will weaken. The high yield market, the junk bond market which has already weakened, the earnings may disappoint. We had essentially, very poor sales from McDonald's. 

Now, McDonald's is a very good indicator of the global economy. If McDonald's doesn't increase its sales, it tells you that the monetary policies have largely failed in the sense that prices are going up more than disposable income, and so people have less purchasing power. So I think we are going to go down in October, November and there will be a rebound and there will be no new highs . It would be my view.