Monday, February 8, 2016

Credit Bubble: India vs China

Basically the Chinese economy is much weaker than the government is telling you. Economy at the present time is growing at maximum 2-4 percent. In general, we have a colossal credit bubble in China and this credit bubble has to be deflated one way or the other. India in this respect is in a better position because we don’t have that kind of a credit bubble. We also have some excessive credit in some sectors of the economy but not to the extent China has. 

In my view, the Chinese economy -- you just have to look at imports and the exports from Taiwan, from South Korea, these are relatively reliable statistics. Then you look at the Baltic dry index and freight cost in China and electricity consumption and everything points out that the economy is not growing at 6.9 percent. This is complete nonsense but of course it is published by the government. 

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