Monday, March 7, 2016

Near term rally will lift the markets a few percentage points higher

The market in February became extremely oversold, and from this extremely oversold position, we can have a relatively strong rally. First of all a lot of momentum stocks got hit hard in first 4 weeks of the year. They are oversold and can rebound. Secondly many stocks are down 25 to 30 percent from their highs in 2015. And the oil sector could easily rebound 10 to 20 percent. That could drive the market up to maybe around 2050 [on the S&P500], but I don't necessarily see new highs, and if new highs happen, they will happen with very few stocks participating.