Thursday, May 4, 2017

Stock Bull market is possible even if the economy is dropping downwards

In a money printing environment such as we had in Japan, in Europe with the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, you can have a bull market even if the economy is actually going down or not recovering much simply because of money printing. But, I agree with you. In principle, it is predicated on nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the long run and on corporate earnings growth. And in my view, in the long run, if you take say, the US, what is the future growth rate of the US? Maybe 1-2 percent per annum.

So, corporate earnings in my view, will grow at 1 - 2 percent per annum in the long run, otherwise eventually, if they grow much faster than nominal GDP, corporate earnings will be nominal GDP which is not possible.