Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Impossible for Greece to pay its Debt

I think the Greek problem is real. In my view, it is less an economic issue than a political issue. Basically the US would hate to see Greece becoming or separating from the EU simply because immediately there would be Russian influence in Greece or Chinese influence, so it is a geopolitical issue more than an economic issue. 

Economically it is very clear. Greece cannot pay its debt, it is impossible, it is mathematically not possible and so a solution has to be found probably a compromise, probably the Greek politicians will be bribed by some handouts or whatever it is and they will continue to muddle through.

The problem is that Greece should never have joined the EU in the first play and when it joined and first problem occurred, which was about four-five years ago, it should have been kicked out right away. Now the problem is not that larger and I would say this is a problem for the global economy. McKinsey recently published a study whereby global debts today are USD 57 trillion larger than in 2007. 

So all we have done is kicked the can down the road and the problems are still there, excessive debt will make it very difficult for the global economy to again grow in a sustainable way.