Monday, June 13, 2016

USA economy similar to having a Botox surgery

I am bearish about the world. And I think the US. stocks is more than fully priced and is vulnerable to a significant decline. 

The economy in America is like botox surgery. You create, on the surface, something that looks quite okay, but behind the scene, it's not so okay. If we look, precisely, at, say, labor statistics: so, jobs in the manufacturing sector are being cut, the manufacturing sector is no longer very important in the U.S., but jobs in leisure and hospitality, barmen and waiters are going up strongly. Full-time jobs are being reduced and part-time jobs are being created. So, if you really analyze the figures - including, also, the figures that come out about the budget deficit, in other words, the fiscal stimulus and so forth - they all look horrible! 

Superficially, the U.S. will tell you: "Well, our deficit has shrunk from over a trillion dollars to, say, $450 billion.  But, I am adding the government debt every year, and by that measure, last year, the deficit was close to a trillion dollars. The government debt since Obama became president 8 years ago, has gone from $8 trillion, to now over $19 trillion. These are the facts.