Monday, February 20, 2017

Could we be near the market top ?

I like the US markets in a sense that for the first time since the bull markets began in March 2009. There is a euphoric move. In other words we are leading to a top somewhere here. 

The shorting pit is dangerous because we don't know how far Central Banks are still going to print money. If you print money and you have large deficits that lead to higher government debt. 

Under Mr Obama US debt almost doubled to now $20 Trillion Dollars. Then stocks can go up and economic conditions can worsen. So the shorting game, I think you have to be short very specific names that have deteriorating conditions.

But I think the way to play it is to own emerging markets. Everyone makes a huge hoopla about US markets going up, Hong Kong is up 9 percent, Singapore is up 9 percent.... Mexico is up 6 percent.... Brazil, Argentina is up almost 20 percent. So actually Trump policies have been good for foreign markets.