Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Fed and interest rate hikes

Since the end of last year, the US dollar has been weakening and I suppose that the policies of the US would rather welcome a weak dollar than a strong dollar. It is not my view that it would help the US in the long run but that of the policy maker's.Going forward, dollar assets are not the most desirable assets.

The Fed may increase interest rates at some point, but they will probably leave real rates negative for a long time. We have had many American property prices already declining and also rents declining, which essentially would rather indicate weakness in the economy than strength. Whenever the next recession comes, the Federal Reserve in my view will liquify the system with some sort of quantitative easing.They may not call it QE, but the impact will be the same.